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-John Phillips wrote a good article last month on the impact (or lack of) John McCain and Barack Obama would have on our immigration issues.

Take a look:

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While the two candidates will undoubtedly pick at each other about the issue, there’s little difference between what McCain and Obama believe about the immigration issue.  Both want to see immigration reform passed by Congress.  How badly they want it remains to be seen.  Immigration is a dicey issue.  It’s not strictly liberal-conservative, red-blue, Democratic-Republican.  Some present members of Congress will continue to oppose it.  It’s my guess that some new members of the next Congress will oppose it.  The next president will have to spend a fair amount of political capital to get immigration reform enacted.

Also, if McCain and Obama stick to their rhetoric that the borders must be secure before immigration reform can be had, then it’s unlikely to occur anyway.  We’ve proved again and again that we can’t keep illegals out.  They get jobs.  Some of them get caught and are deported.  Some aren’t and work illegally.  In order for reform to work, there must be something built in to deal with this imperfect situation.

My guess is that either McCain or Obama will work with Congress to pass something called immigration reform.  It’s likely to be a tepid attempt to deal with a complicated, controversial issue, which means that what the states have already started doing will carry the day, which means that immigration will remain a mess.

The fact that McCain and Obama have started talking about the issue again doesn’t mean much from a substantive standpoint.  Both are simply courting the Hispanic vote right now and trying simultaneously to avoid alienating the anti-immigration vote.  Quite a high wire act.  It’ll be a while before we know whether their words are ultimately converted into action.